Insured losses from Typhoon Faxai could be between about $3bn and $7bn, according to projections from AIR Worldwide.
The risk modelling firm’s estimate points to a higher top-of-the-range loss than early market expectations, which had last week pointed to maximum insured claims of about $5bn.
The AIR forecast covers insured damage to property, including structure and contents, and automobile losses from wind and storm surges.
Typhoon Faxai made landfall at Yokosuka on 9 September, before crossing Tokyo Bay and hitting Tokyo’s metropolitan region as a Category 2 Hurricane with winds of up to 134mph.
High winds downed two electric towers and several utility poles, leaving more than 900,000 people without power in the Chiba, Ibaraki, Kanagawa, Shizuoka and Tokyo prefectures, AIR said.
The major port of Yokohoma was hit hard by winds and rain, with Japanese public broadcaster NHK reporting containers being scattered and part of the sea wall being destroyed.
According to the modelling company, compared to past typhoons that hit the area Faxai had higher sustained wind speed at landfall than 2002’s Typhoon Higos, which was considered the third strongest typhoon to affect Tokyo since World War Two.
It also matched 1958’s Typhoon Helen for lowest recorded central pressure.
AIR added that its strength was most in line with Typhoon Jebi, which struck Shikoku Island in early September 2018 and is one of the costliest in terms of claims. That storm is widely expected to generate ultimate claims of well over $15bn,
This publication reported last week that the early market consensus placed losses from Faxai at around $3bn. However, forecasts ranged from $1.5bn to $5bn.
A loss on the scale that AIR is projecting would add further impetus for rate increases come 1 April 2020.