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Helene is currently a Category 1, but rapid strengthening is anticipated over the next day.
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In the best-case scenario, a Big Bend-landing storm could cost $3bn-$5bn, Howden Re said.
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The system is forming in the same area as 2022’s Hurricane Ian.
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Fifteen events caused estimated losses of $306mn.
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The ratings agency said companies focused on growing business in Gulf Coast states, however, would face a “key test” as claims materialised.
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A sub-$3bn industry insured loss event would be similar to estimates for hurricanes Beryl and Debby.
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Francine has been the eighth Category 2 or larger storm to make landfall in Louisiana since 2000.
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Hurricane Ida hit Fairfax’s Brit operations, but the Odyssey business took a higher proportion of Fairfax’s overall losses.