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Organic growth will slow from historically elevated levels and the increased cost of debt will take its toll.
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The brokerage reported that polled carriers, however, have pointed to ransomware activity reverting to 2019 levels to argue current pricing is unsustainable.
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A “return to minimal valuation increases can be expected soon”, the broker wrote in its 2024 P&C market outlook report.
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European rates on line increased by 7.60%, while in the US prices were up 5.25%.
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2024 is likely to be another challenging year for the industry, and commercial in particular, though improvement in personal lines may soften the blow.
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The broker said over-placement on some deals was a positive sign for brokers, though reinsurance capacity is still very tight in some areas.
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Reinsurers are making some adjustments to secure target signings but appetite to grow is finely balanced.
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Carriers aren’t calling off their retreat from the market until tangible, actionable regulations emerge from commissioner Lara’s camp, sources told this publication.
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The need to recognize adverse development in the back book is the most plausible culprit for market behavior, and an escalation of rhetoric.
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Cooling CPI metrics and improving loss ratios indicate a positive shift for the personal auto industry, but results are not yet back to where they need to be.
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The 2024 budget increases net operating expenses to $40.2mn, up from $35.2mn in the 2023 budget.
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Anticipations of a tug-of-war around a ‘flat to slightly up’ pricing renewal have indeed come to fruition.