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The wildfire started Wednesday and is 0% contained so far. -
The carrier’s Q3 net income will be around $100mn, far below consensus.
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The carrier had $300mn of favorable development in Q3, mostly led by short-tail lines and ex-workers' comp.
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Initial expectations for the later storm prove overblown, while inland auto losses mount for the earlier event.
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The firm will provide an update on November 22 to avoid holiday season.
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The broker said the casualty segment is approaching an “inflexion point”.
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Republican tariffs and higher Democratic corporate taxes would hurt the sector.
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The commercial carrier also reported a Hurricane Milton pre-tax net loss forecast of $250mn-$300mn.
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The estimate implies a roughly $15bn homeowners’ industry loss from the hurricane.
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Arch is assuming an industry loss related to Helene in the $12bn-$14bn range.
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The NFIP can take on more debt, but climate-fueled disasters aren’t going anywhere.
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The ratings agency said higher attachment points would make 2024 hurricane claims “manageable”.
